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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at
06/0635Z from Region 3663 (N25W45). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08
May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 06/1934Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 06/0550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 05/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08
May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 171 Predicted 07 May-09 May 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 06 May 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 018/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 010/012-009/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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