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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
26/1530Z from Region 3723 (S19E30). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 26/1553Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 26/0329Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
26/0618Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jun) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 181 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 005/005-010/012-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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