Viewing archive of Monday, 8 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/2230Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul,
11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 08/1455Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 08/1044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/0936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (10 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 169 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 009/010-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
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