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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0720Z from Region 3751 (S09W15). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 403 km/s at 20/0509Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/0905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (22 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (23
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 207 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 018/020-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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