Viewing archive of Friday, 19 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/0823Z from Region 3753 (N12W76). There are currently 18 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 363 km/s at 19/2045Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1746Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (20 Jul, 21 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (22 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 202 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 200/190/185 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 013/016-018/020-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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