Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 15 2320 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 227 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 230/225/220 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 009/010-015/018-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 55% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
ReykjavikCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/11 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 141.4 +7.2 |
| Last 30 days | 137.1 -3 |