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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
18/1014Z from Region 3751 (S08E14). There are currently 18 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 17/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/1603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/1623Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (20 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(21 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day three (21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 209 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 210/210/210 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/008-013/016-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 161.6 -51.3 |