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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/0404Z from Region 3762 (S13E37). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 22/1853Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jul), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 185 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 009/010-020/030-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 75% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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