Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 July 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jul 23 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Jul 2024	184	007
24 Jul 2024	183	019
25 Jul 2024	182	034

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M1.5 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3744 which peaked at 13:00 UTC on Jul 22. During the flare, the source region (AR 3744) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Currently, NOAA AR 3751 and NOAA AR 3762 are the most complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), but they have only produced C-class flarings. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

Presently available observations indicate that the partial halo CME, which was first observed on the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view around 18:45 UTC on Jul 22, had a source region on the farside of the Sun. It is therefore not expected to arrive at Earth. More will be reported on this CME when additional data is available. A halo CME was first observed on the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view around 00:24 UTC on Jul 23, and it possibly has the source region on the farside of the Sun. Hence, it is not expected to arrive at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Solar wind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime with a speed of about 300 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 nT and 10 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, unless the CME observed on Jul 21 (produced by NOAA AR 3757, and twisted filament eruption) arrives at Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). We expect unsettled to minor storm levels (K 3 to 5) in the next 24 hours due to the possible arrival of an ICME, associated to CME observed on Jul 21 (produced by NOAA AR 3757, and twisted filament eruption).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux started to increase around 23:45 UTC on July 22, crossed the 10 pfu threshold level at 03:00 UTC on July 23, and it is still increasing. The greater than 50 MeV GOES proton flux and the greater than 100 MeV GOES proton flux have also started to increase around 00:20 UTC on July 23. They are still increasing, but both are still below the 10 pfu threshold level. This event is possibly associated with the coronal mass ejection observed around 00:24 UTC on July 23, which most likely had its source on the Sun's farside. More will be reported when additional data is available. The proton flux is expected to remain elevated in the the coming hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at low level, and it is expected to be at low to normal level in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 173, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	193
10cm solar flux	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	182 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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