Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar events of the period were two M1 events
observed at 11/0528Z from Region 3780 (S11W20) and at 11/2018Z from
Region 3777 (S10W60). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on
the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13
Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 11/2032Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 11/0917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (14
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 282 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 280/270/270 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 018/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 025/038-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
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