Viewing archive of Monday, 12 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/2358Z from Region 3780 (S11W20). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14
Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at minor storm to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 12/0738Z. Total
IMF reached 23 nT at 11/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -20 nT at 12/1017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (14 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (15
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 272 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 285/270/270 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 023/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 069/126 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 028/040-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, SodankyläTrondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Luleå, Umeå
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