Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
16/1326Z from Region 3738 (N09W83). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (17 Jul) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(18 Jul, 19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 16/2013Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 16/0526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
15/2341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Jul, 19
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (18 Jul). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jul) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 242 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 240/238/238 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 009/008-007/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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