Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/1530Z from Region 3813 (S22W11). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 08/1143Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
08/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (10 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 228 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 007/010-018/030-018/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 75% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 164.2 +19.1 |