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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/1530Z from Region 3813 (S22W11). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 08/1143Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to major storm levels on day two (10 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (11 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Sep 228
  Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 225/225/220
  90 Day Mean        08 Sep 215

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  009/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  007/010-018/030-018/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%35%
Minor storm10%35%25%
Major-severe storm01%25%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%10%
Minor storm30%15%20%
Major-severe storm40%75%65%

All times in UTC

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