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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0000Z from Region 3796 (S03E55). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 19/0724Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1854Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (22 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 239 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 240/245/240 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 006/005-006/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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