Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
19/0656Z from Region 3854 (S06W85). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (20 Oct) and likely
to be moderate on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 19/2017Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 19/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 19/0335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (21 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (22 Oct).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 162 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 011/012-006/005-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/09 | X1.4 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/19 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| October 2024 | 149.5 +8.1 |
| Last 30 days | 152.1 +0.6 |