Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 January 2025

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/0408Z from Region 3977 (N19E53). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 29/1300Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jan 173
  Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        29 Jan 196

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  006/005-009/010-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%40%40%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 19:52 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (523.7 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (18.1nT), the direction is North (15.86nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M1.22

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