Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
24/2302Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27
Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 25/0054Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 24/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
25/1842Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 37 pfu at 25/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Feb, 27 Feb)
and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Feb). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Feb), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (27 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (28 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 95% | 55% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 190 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 008/006-007/010-017/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NorilskLatest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
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Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2225AR4048 115Changelog/Featurelog 170Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1663New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 36
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