Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 24 March 2025

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 24 2220 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 24/0657Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 24/0114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 351 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (25 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Mar).

III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar

Class M	30%	30%	30%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       24 Mar 156
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 162/165/160
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 186

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  017/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  022/030-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	35%	35%
Minor storm	35%	30%	20%
Major-severe storm	25%	15%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	10%
Minor storm	15%	20%	30%
Major-severe storm	75%	70%	50%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.83nT), the direction is North (7.57nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

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