Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
19/2345Z from Region 3991 (S14W38). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 20/0439Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 184 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 193
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/14 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/14 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| March 2025 | 129.9 -24.7 |
| Last 30 days | 138.5 -18.3 |