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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/1221Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 23/2334Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/2047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 743 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27
Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 205 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 021/030-014/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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