Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 31 March 2025

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 31/1444Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 31/1109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/1515Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 37 pfu at 31/1725Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2038 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Apr, 02 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (03 Apr). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (01 Apr), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (02 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Apr).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr

Class M	75%	75%	75%
Class X	25%	25%	25%
Proton	80%	35%	25%
PCAF	yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       31 Mar 172
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 179

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	10%
Minor storm	05%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	30%	30%	20%
Major-severe storm	25%	25%	20%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.76nT), the direction is North (10.52nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-60nT)

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