Viewing archive of Monday, 2 December 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Dec 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 DEC 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S05W90)
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
LIMB. OTHER REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY AS 7999 CROSSES THE LIMB. VERY LOW
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM 02/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 03 DEC to 05 DEC
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 DEC 078 Predicted 03 DEC-05 DEC 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 02 DEC 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 DEC 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC 010/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC 010/005-010/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 DEC to 05 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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