Viewing archive of Friday, 7 February 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 FEB 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT FLARES OBSERVED. ALL SPOTTED REGIONS REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET. H-ALPHA, YOHKOH X-RAY, AND SPACE-BASED CORONAGRAPH DATA INDICATE A LARGE CME OCCURRED TODAY AT APPROXIMATELY 07/0230Z. THE CME SPANNED THE SOLAR DISK FROM THE WEST LIMB NEAR N00W90, SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT CHANNEL, TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR S40E90. THIS SUGGESTS A SPAN OF SOME 200 DEGREES. X-RAY DATA INDICATE A SLIGHT LONG-DURATION ELEVATION IN SOLAR X-RAY OUTPUT DURING THE EVENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ELEVATED ACTIVITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BY DAY FOUR IN RESPONSE TO THE OBSERVED CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 FEB 076
  Predicted   08 FEB-10 FEB  076/076/076
  90 Day Mean        07 FEB 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 FEB to 10 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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