Viewing archive of Friday, 28 March 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 MAR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S SOLE C-CLASS EVENT WAS CLASS C1 AT 0120Z. THERE WERE NO OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE OF THE EVENT. REGION 8026 (S24E59) IS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK AND HAS SHOWN SLOW GROWTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GROUP HAS NEW CYCLE POLARITY, WITH MAGNETICALLY NEGATIVE LEADERS AND POSITIVE TRAILERS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL, ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8026.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT 28/1400Z, WHEN AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY BEGAN. SINCE 1400Z, ACTIVITY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES. SOLAR WIND DATA WERE AVAILABLE BRIEFLY DURING THE DISTURBANCE AND INDICATED ENHANCED DENSITIES (10-15 P/CC), NOMINAL SPEEDS (400-430 KM/S), AND A SOUTHWARD DIRECTED INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD OF MODERATE STRENGTH (-5 TO -10 NT). THIS SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVITY WAS CAUSED BY A CORONAL TRANSIENT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 29 MAR to 31 MAR
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 MAR 073
  Predicted   29 MAR-31 MAR  074/075/076
  90 Day Mean        28 MAR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAR  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAR-31 MAR  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 MAR to 31 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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