Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 March 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 MAR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL B-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8026 (S23E46) CONTINUED TO GROW SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD AND HAS DEVELOPED PENUMBRA ON LEADER AND TRAILER SPOTS. THE ACTIVITY IN THE REGION HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENT OUT OF REGION 8026. THE CHANCES FOR M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY FROM THIS GROUP ARE SLIGHT, BUT ARE NOW CONSIDERED TO BE NON-NEGLIGIBLE, GIVEN THE CONTINUED INCREASE OF PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY AND THE CONTINUED TREND OF FLUX EMERGENCE FROM THE REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH SOME INTERVALS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDE SITES.
III. Event Probabilities 30 MAR to 01 APR
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 MAR 075
  Predicted   30 MAR-01 APR  076/077/078
  90 Day Mean        29 MAR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAR  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAR-01 APR  010/015-010/012-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 MAR to 01 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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