Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 April 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 APR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENT AT 03/1327Z OCCURRED WHICH WAS NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8026.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FROM 03/0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE LAST DAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 01 APRIL.
III. Event Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
Class M20%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 APR 079
  Predicted   04 APR-06 APR  079/079/078
  90 Day Mean        03 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR  025/015-025/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%15%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%15%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Norilsk, Vorkuta

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Surgut
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (580.6 km/sec.)

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