Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 April 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 APR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8031 (S30W49) CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE AND BECAME A SMALL D-CLASS REGION. THIS REGION PRODUCED A B8/SF AT 13/1846Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8031 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL C-CLASS FLARES AND CONTINUED GROWTH SHOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF THOSE SMALL EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES CONTINUED AT AN ELEVATED BUT STEADY LEVEL.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS A MODERATELY HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND IS IN THE EARTH'S VICINITY.
III. Event Probabilities 14 APR to 16 APR
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 APR 079
  Predicted   14 APR-16 APR  081/082/078
  90 Day Mean        13 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 APR  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 APR  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 APR-16 APR  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 APR to 16 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä
Tromsø, Trondheim
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (515 km/sec.)
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-6.14nT).

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