Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION
8038 (N21E07) SHOWED SOME GROWTH DURING THE REPORTING PERIOD AND IS
CURRENTLY A TWO SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA GROUP. REGION 8039 (N23W52)
REGAINED IT'S ACTIVE STATUS AS A SINGLE SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGENTIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 MAY 072 Predicted 11 MAY-13 MAY 073/074/074 90 Day Mean 10 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, KuopioArkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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