Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 June 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JUN 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8048 (S28E03) IS THE ONLY SPOT GROUP NOW VISIBLE. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ONE EPISODE OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 0600-0900Z, AS A RESULT OF A SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO A DSF/CME ON MAY 31. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE LAST TWO DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 JUN 075
  Predicted   04 JUN-06 JUN  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        03 JUN 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  020/020-010/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 20:20 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (575.5 km/sec.)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M1.05

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