Viewing archive of Monday, 8 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8113 (N20W87) IS
QUIETLY ROTATING OFF THE VISIBLE DISK. IMPRESSIVE NEW REGION GROWTH
OCCURRED TODAY WITH 3 NEW SPOTTED REGIONS DEVELOPING. NEWLY NUMBERED
REGIONS INCLUDE: 8118 (S38E37), A 6 SPOT BXO GROUP, 8119 (N32E00), A
3 SPOT BXO, AND 8120 (S22E36), A 5 SPOT BXO GROUP. SEVEN SPOTTED
REGIONS NOW EXIST BUT ALL ARE SMALL WITH SIMPLE MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8118 EXHIBITED SIGNS OF GROWTH AND EXPERIENCED
PERIODS OF STRONG SURGING; HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST THREAT MAY COME FROM
REGION 8119. ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO REGION 8116 (N26W03) MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT IF EITHER OR BOTH REGIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. BOTH
REGIONS ARE SHOWING SOME SLOW GROWTH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY 3 DUE TO A HALO CME OBSERVED AT
06/1030UT. THE CME CORRELATED WELL WITH A VERY LONG DURATION C1
FLARE (06/1052 - 07/0041UT) FROM REGION 8113. THE APPARENT LOW SPEED
OF THE CME COUPLED WITH A PRESENT LOW WIND VELOCITY SUGGEST
WEDENSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR GEOMAGNETIC EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 09 DEC to 11 DEC
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 DEC 098 Predicted 09 DEC-11 DEC 099/099/102 90 Day Mean 08 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 DEC 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC 005/008-020/013-020/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 DEC to 11 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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