Viewing archive of Monday, 12 January 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JAN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8131 (S23E04) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT SPOT GROWTH AND INCREASED MAGNETIC FIELD GRADIENTS. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL AND STABLE. A PARTIAL-HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS DETECTED BEGINNING ABOUT 12/0400UT AND AT LAST REPORT SPANNED AT LEAST 180 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORTH POLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. REGION 8131 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IF PRESENT GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS INCREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 JAN 096
  Predicted   13 JAN-15 JAN  098/098/100
  90 Day Mean        12 JAN 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN  005/005-005/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm00%05%15%
Major-severe storm00%00%05%

All times in UTC

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