Viewing archive of Monday, 12 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8131
(S23E04) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS IT DISPLAYED
SIGNIFICANT SPOT GROWTH AND INCREASED MAGNETIC FIELD GRADIENTS. THE
REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL AND STABLE. A PARTIAL-HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION WAS DETECTED BEGINNING ABOUT 12/0400UT AND AT LAST REPORT
SPANNED AT LEAST 180 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORTH POLE. NO NEW REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8131 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION MAY
ALSO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IF PRESENT GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS INCREASING TO
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 JAN 096 Predicted 13 JAN-15 JAN 098/098/100 90 Day Mean 12 JAN 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN 007/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN 005/005-005/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 00% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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