Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW BY VIRTUE OF A C1/SF FLARE IN
REGION 8131 (S22W10) AT 12/2113Z AND AN UNCORELATED C1 XRAY BURST AT
13/1016Z. REGION 8131 (S22W10) REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE AND QUIET.
NEW REGION 8135 (S17E69), A SINGLE AXX SPOT, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8131 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS FLARES AND
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN BECOME QUIET TO
UNSETTLED IN RESPONSE TO TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED EARLIER
THIS WEEK. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS BY
DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JAN to 16 JAN
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 JAN 090 Predicted 14 JAN-16 JAN 090/090/094 90 Day Mean 13 JAN 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JAN 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JAN 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JAN-16 JAN 005/005-010/005-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JAN to 16 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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