Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 March 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE ACTIVITY FROM ANY OF THE FIVE SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK. OPTICALLY UNCORELATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV SWEEP FREQUENCY BURSTS WERE OBSERVED TODAY. THE TYPE II WAS AT 29/0245Z WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF 600 KM/S AND THE TYPE IV WAS OBSERVED FROM 29/0302Z-29/0332Z. A 27 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT POSITIONED IN THE NW DISAPPEARED YESTERDAY BETWEEN 28/1826Z-28/2038Z. THE SOHO/LASCO INSTRUMENT OBSERVED A LARGE PARTIAL HALO/CME AT ABOUT 29/0348Z. THE MATERIAL MAY HAVE ORIGINATED ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE DISK. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8190 (S20E66).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGION 8185 STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT ALL LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 30 MAR to 01 APR
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 MAR 100
  Predicted   30 MAR-01 APR  100/098/098
  90 Day Mean        29 MAR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAR  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAR-01 APR  015/015-015/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 MAR to 01 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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