Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8210 (S16E67) PRODUCED TWO C-CLASS FLARES, A C3/SF LONG DURATION EVENT AT 25/1439Z AND A C1/1F AT 25/1806Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED HIGH SPEED SURGE. BOTH FLARES WERE ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR DISCRETE RADIO ACTIVITY. THIS REGION HAS GROWN TO A DAO SPOT GROUP, BUT APPEARS TO BE MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE THUS FAR. A THIRD C-CLASS EVENT, AN UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURST, WAS DETECTED AT 25/1123Z. NEW REGION 8211 (S22W12), A SIMPLE AXX SPOT, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THIS REGION RESIDES IN AN EXTENSIVE PLAGE FIELD THAT APPEARS RIPE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8210 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING FURTHER C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A FAIR CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND A CHANCE OF ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UT DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 25/1650Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 26 APR to 28 APR
Class M15%20%20%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 APR 092
  Predicted   26 APR-28 APR  094/096/096
  90 Day Mean        25 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 APR  023/035
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 APR  018/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 APR-28 APR  015/012-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 APR to 28 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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