Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8210 (S17E56), NOW
A CKO SPOT GROUP, MAINTAINED ITS SIMPLE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND
WAS RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8210 STILL HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS
ACTIVITY, A SMALL CHANCE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARING.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM AT MID LATITUDES AND
MOSTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. SPACE-BASED SENSORS
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS CORONAL HOLE ASSOCIATED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX RANGED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. HIGH
LATITUDES WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 27 APR to 29 APR
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 APR 091 Predicted 27 APR-29 APR 092/094/094 90 Day Mean 26 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 APR 013/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 APR 020/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 APR-29 APR 010/018-010/015-005/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 APR to 29 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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