Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 September 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N32W90) PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 0459Z. REGION 8323 (S23E30) CONTINUED TO GROW AND IS NOW A LARGE (1230 MILLIONTHS) COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP WITH A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. THE REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8319 (N19W68) ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT DID NOT SHOW ANY GROWTH TREND AND HAS A SIMPLE, BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. THE CONTINUED GROWTH, COMPLEXITY, AND MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTHS IN REGION 8323, HOWEVER, IMPLY THAT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS APPEARED TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM THE HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY FLOW OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, TO A SLOWER, SOMEWHAT HIGHER DENSITY THAT IS CHARACTERISTIC OF NORMAL QUIESCENT SOLAR WIND. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH A FEW ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 02 SEP to 04 SEP
Class M70%65%65%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 SEP 177
  Predicted   02 SEP-04 SEP  170/165/150
  90 Day Mean        01 SEP 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG  012/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP  010/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP  015/015-015/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 SEP to 04 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%15%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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