Viewing archive of Friday, 4 September 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 SEP 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO LOW LEVELS. THREE C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED, ONE OF WHICH WAS OPTICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBFLARE IN REGION 8326 (N18E60). REGION 8323 (S22W13) WAS STABLE AND REMAINED A LARGE SPOT GROUP OF MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8328 (S18E72) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8323. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS WITH BRIEF UNSETTLED PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THE SECOND DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 SEP 155
  Predicted   05 SEP-07 SEP  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        04 SEP 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP  004/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP  006/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP  008/010-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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