Viewing archive of Monday, 12 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. TWO C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES WERE DETECTED, ONE OF WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBFLARE IN REGION 8355 (S22W04). ALL REGIONS APPEARED STABLE DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING TREND, GIVEN THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD
REGION 8340 (N20, L=013) ON 14 OCTOBER. REGION 8355 APPEARS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED, THOUGH THE UNSETTLED
PERIODS WERE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
| Class M | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 OCT 114 Predicted 13 OCT-15 OCT 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 12 OCT 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 OCT 007/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 OCT 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 OCT-15 OCT 005/008-005/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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