Viewing archive of Monday, 12 October 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. TWO C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE DETECTED, ONE OF WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBFLARE IN REGION 8355 (S22W04). ALL REGIONS APPEARED STABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING TREND, GIVEN THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGION 8340 (N20, L=013) ON 14 OCTOBER. REGION 8355 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED, THOUGH THE UNSETTLED PERIODS WERE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
Class M10%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 OCT 114
  Predicted   13 OCT-15 OCT  115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        12 OCT 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 OCT  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 OCT  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 OCT-15 OCT  005/008-005/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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