Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8375 (N19W62)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N FLARE AT 1712UT. REGION 8383 (S14E76) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SEVERE STORM. THE CME REPORTED ON
5 NOV ARRIVED AT AND INTERACTED WITH THE EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE,
CAUSING SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE 06-09UT PERIOD. THE GT
10 MEV PROTONS CLIMBED PAST THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD FOR APPROXIMATELY
25 MINUTES STARTING AT 08/0245UT. THEY HAVE DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS
SINCE THAT TIME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 NOV 153 Predicted 09 NOV-11 NOV 150/155/150 90 Day Mean 08 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV 013/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV 018/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV 025/030-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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