Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 March 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION C2/SF FROM REGION 8475 (N30W64) OCCURRED AT 06/2323Z. REGION 8477 (S25W10) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 07/0408Z. AN 11 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT N30W35 BETWEEN 06/0954-2307Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SECTORS. THE MOST PROBABLE CAUSE IS THE ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUN.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR EARTH ENVIRONS.
III. Event Probabilities 08 MAR to 10 MAR
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 MAR 110
  Predicted   08 MAR-10 MAR  112/114/116
  90 Day Mean        07 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAR  007/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAR  025/024
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAR-10 MAR  015/016-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 MAR to 10 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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