Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 April 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES WERE OBSERVED SINCE YESTERDAY, NONE OF WHICH WERE ABOVE A C3 X-RAY LEVEL. REGION 8504 (S28E11) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 8506 (S26W02), 8507 (N11E58), AND 8508 (N18E79) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8508 APPEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8485, THE PRODUCER OF FIVE M-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8504, 8506, AND 8508 ARE EXHIBITING SPORADIC SURGING AND BRIGHTENING. EACH OF THESE REGIONS MAY DEVELOP THE CAPABILITY OF M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTELD. ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD DUE TO AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
III. Event Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 APR 103
  Predicted   04 APR-06 APR  110/115/122
  90 Day Mean        03 APR 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR  015/020-012/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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