Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 April 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 APR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N19E37) PRODUCED A
C3/SF AT 06/0705Z AND REGION 8506 (S26W410) GENERATED A C3/SF AT
05/2309Z. SOME AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WERE VISIBLE IN BOTH
REGIONS BUT OVERALL THESE REGIONS WERE STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8506 AND 8508.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 06/0000-0600Z PERIOD WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
OCCURRED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL LATE ON 07 APR. THEN A WEAK, CME RELATED,
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. A HALO-APPEARING CME OCCURRED AT
THE SUN ON 04 APR. HOWEVER, IT IS BELIEVED THIS CME ACTUALLY
CONSISTED OF TWO SEPARATE EJECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
LIMBS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE A DIRECT BLOW
BY THESE EJECTIONS. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC PERIODS ARE PROBABLE DURING
THE 08-09 APR TIME PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 APR to 09 APR
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 APR 137 Predicted 07 APR-09 APR 140/142/144 90 Day Mean 06 APR 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 APR to 09 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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