Viewing archive of Monday, 3 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8525 (N18E24)
GENERATED AN M4/2N EVENT AT 0602Z. A HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS
SEEN BY SOHO-LASCO A SHORT TIME LATER. THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED TYPE II
AND IV SWEEPS, AND A RADIO BURST OF 220 SFU AT 2695 MHZ. THE REGION
HAS BEEN LARGELY QUIET SINCE THIS ACTIVITY, RETAINING ITS BRIGHT
PLAGE AND OMINOUS APPEARANCE. REGION 8524 (N20W69) BECAME ACTIVE
LATE IN THE DAY, PRODUCING THREE C-CLASS FLARES IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8524 AND 8525 ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE CONTINUED
C-CLASS ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED M-LEVEL EVENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY FROM
TODAY'S HALO CME IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 MAY 127 Predicted 04 MAY-06 MAY 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 03 MAY 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY 008/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 MAY to 06 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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