Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 April 1999

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 15/0239Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON 13 APRIL.

III. Event Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR

Class M	15%	15%	15%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       15 APR 122
  Predicted   16 APR-18 APR  118/115/112
  90 Day Mean        15 APR 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  020/020-020/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	30%	20%
Minor storm	20%	20%	10%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	35%	35%	25%
Minor storm	25%	25%	10%
Major-severe storm	15%	15%	05%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (558.7 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (17.91nT), the direction is North (8.31nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-69nT)

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