Viewing archive of Friday, 14 May 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAY 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO SMALL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LASCO/EIT IMAGES INDICATED A CME BEHIND THE NE LIMB AT APPROX 14/0400Z, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A 20 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT (S35E60) AT 14/0600Z. REGIONS 8544 (S20E60) AND 8545 (N37E72) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED BY THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 MAY 144
  Predicted   15 MAY-17 MAY  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        14 MAY 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  017/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  ???/???
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  005/008-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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