Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY SMALL FLARES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8546 (S33W45) AND
8547 (N22W15). REGION 8547 IS EMERGING JUST EAST OF REGION 8541
(N21W26). GROWTH HAS BEEN REPORTED IN REGION 8544 (S21E48)
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE PERIODS LIKELY ON 17
MAY AS A RESULT OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 MAY 144 Predicted 16 MAY-18 MAY 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 15 MAY 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY 005/008-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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