Viewing archive of Friday, 25 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C3.4 AT 24/2305Z FROM REGION 8603 (S15E54). REGION 8603 WAS OTHERWISE QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8598 (N23E13) IS THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S FREQUENT SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. THE SUNSPOT AREA IN THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE. THE REGION'S MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS NOT UNDULY COMPLEX AT THIS TIME. REGION 8604 (N12W68) ALSO PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES TODAY. YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION THAT OCCURRED AT ABOUT 24/1200Z WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OBSERVATION OF A PARTIAL HALO CME BY LASCO.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH ACTIVITY LEVELS. REGION 8598 IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE FOR ENERGETIC FLARES, ESPECIALLY IF SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DEVELOPS. REGIONS 8603, 8604, AND 8606 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME C-CLASS SUBFLARES TO SOLAR ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. YESTERDAY'S PARTIAL HALO CME MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY SOME, BEGINNING LATE ON THE THRID DAY, ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE TRANSIENT IS NOT MOVING DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 26 JUN to 28 JUN
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 JUN 201
  Predicted   26 JUN-28 JUN  205/210/210
  90 Day Mean        25 JUN 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUN-28 JUN  005/010-005/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 JUN to 28 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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