Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST X-RAY FLARE WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 EVENT AT 23/2316Z. THE BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX REMAINED ABOVE C-LEVEL THRESHOLDS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH FREQUENT IMBEDDED C-CLASS FLARES. OVER TWENTY OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED, NEARLY ALL OF THEM FROM THE EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF GROUPS IN THE NE QUADRANT. TWO DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS WERE SEEN. THE FIRST OCCURRED AT APPROXIMATELY 24/1200Z; IT ORIGINATED NEAR REGION 8595 (N23W21) AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A CLASSIC HYDER TYPE FLARE AND NEARLY THREE HOURS OF ENHANCED X-RAY FLUX LEVELS. THE SECOND FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT APPROXIMATELY 24/1830Z FROM AN AREA NEAR REGION 8598 (N23E28). IT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY OPTICAL FLARES NEAR THE FILAMENT FOOTPOINTS AND APPROXIMATELY NINETY MINUTES OF ENHANCED X-RAY FLUX. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY; THEY ARE REGIONS 8604 (N12W54), 8605 (S22W32), AND 8606 (N17E33).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE NE GROUP CLUSTER INCREASES THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG FLARE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR STORMING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FLARE ASSOCIATED CMES, WHICH OCCURRED ON 22/1829Z AND 23/0709Z, ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FIRST TWO DAYS. TODAY'S EARLY DISAPPEARING FILAMENT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 25 JUN to 27 JUN
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 JUN 185
  Predicted   25 JUN-27 JUN  180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        24 JUN 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUN  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUN  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUN-27 JUN  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 JUN to 27 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%50%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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