Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 July 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 JUL 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8639 (N38W38) EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH, AND IS NOW A CLASS D SUNSPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 15 SPOTS. REGION 8636 (N21E25) EXHIBITED SLIGHT GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD AND HAS MAINTAINED A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH 35 SPOTS . REGION 8641 (N30W73), AND REGION 8642 (S18E66) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE 21/1500-1800Z PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE UNSETTLED TO ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE THE RESULT OF A CME EARLY ON THE 19TH. EXPECT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING DAY TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 22 JUL to 24 JUL
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 JUL 147
  Predicted   22 JUL-24 JUL  155/165/170
  90 Day Mean        21 JUL 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL  012/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL  014/015-010/010-008/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 JUL to 24 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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