Viewing archive of Friday, 9 July 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUL 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED IN A VARIETY OF SMALL ACTIVE REGIONS. REGION 8629 (N23W70) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE AREA PRODUCING THE BULK OF THE OBSERVED FLARES. THIS NEW EMERGING REGION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THAT HAD BEEN NUMBERED 8613 BUT HAD SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED. REGIONS 8615 (S29W28), 8626 (S21W43), 8627 (S13E61), AND NEW REGION 8628 (N18E52) ALSO PRODUCED SUBFLARES. REGION 8630 (S10W55) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ANY OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS MENTIONED IN PART IA. ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IN REGION 8629.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 JUL 151
  Predicted   10 JUL-12 JUL  152/154/154
  90 Day Mean        09 JUL 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  004/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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